Network TV Rebirth
-A Contemporary history of the Broadcast Network: What Went Wrong, and What's Going Right-

Back in the late 1990s, almost everybody and their dogs were writing about the death of the broadcast networks. The writing was on the wall apparently: the networks were destined to die due to viewer fragmentation, lack of quality series and their inability to capture the imaginations of the viewers like they previously had.

Well, the prognosticators were right in many senses. The 1990s was a decade that started off excellently for the networks. ABC’s hits like “Roseanne,” “Home Improvement,” “Grace Under Fire,” and “NYPD Blue” tore up the charts. CBS’s “Murphy Brown” reached new heights. NBC’s Thursday night crisis in succession was averted when “Seinfeld” became a monster hit. “Friends” and “ER” both joined in 1994. But the pull of cable television was getting stronger and stronger every single year. In 1990, the networks still commanded more than two third of the television viewing audience; but 2000, that dropped to 50%. More and more people watched cable TV and abandoned the networks. Making matters worse was the fact that as those “super” series (those with the capability of drawing 20 million + viewers on a regular basis) retired or aged, there were few new “super” series to take their place. In fact, only 1 came out of the 1990’s: “Everybody Loves Raymond,” and even that only averaged 20 million in one single season. By 1999, with ABC in the toilet, CBS skewing older and older, and NBC sitting on a bunch of aging hits, the death of the broadcast networks looked like a done deal. But was it? Not by a long shot. In fact, the last 6 season have heralded a rebirth in network TV, making the entire system stronger than it has been in at least 15 years. Here’s why:

1998/99:  The false start of the rebirth

Who Wants To Be A Millionaire: Busting out of the gates, ABC made it a regular series in the winter of 2000. Running multiple nights a week, it frequently drew more than 30 million viewers and propelled ABC to the top of the ratings charts. 

1999/2000: New idea: summer programming can work.

Survivor: Never was a network hit launched in the summer? To hell with that logic. CBS’s reality for-runner, the series that prompted the onslaught of all reality TV in the early 2000s, became a super series, averaging 52 million viewers for its finale and it’s still going strong in its 12^th season, airing right now. It also broke with the old network logic that it was pointless to air new programming in the summer. Well, “Millionaire” did the summer before, but never did a series hit the highs of “Survivor” in the hottest months of the year. This begat American Idol and most recently, Dancing With The Stars.

Consequently, it’s also in the fall of this year that “Millionaire” started to wane, taking ABC’s fortunes with it. ABC knew the show didn’t have a long life span, so it ran the show into the ground, maximizing returns while it could. Unfortunately, it didn’t have a back up plan and it showed. 

2001/2002: The rebirth

After 9/11, launching new series became harder than ever because viewers wanted the safety and comfort of “Friends” over unknowns “What About Joan?” But it was also this fall that “CSI” rose dramatically to 30 million viewers. This event alone led to the rebirth of the procedural drama and its countless spawns, spawns that have done very well for the eye network.

Oh, and in the summer of 2002, a series named “American Idol” launched. More on that later.

2002/2003: Series quickly breaking out and some stick

The 2002/2003 season was a good one for the networks. “CSI Miami” broke out, unsurprisingly, for CBS. “Joe Millionaire” became a huge flash-in-the-pan success for Fox (peaking at 40 million for its finale). CBS managed to get a very durable hit, and a compatible lead-out to “CSI” from “Without A Trace” “American Idol” comes back in January, 2003 to spectacular numbers, leading to a record breaking finale that averaged 35 million viewers. As for the summer? This time, not much.

2003/2004: ABC & NBC’s misfortune and the lull

As NBC prepared to bid a fond farewell to both “Friends” and “Frasier,” ratings slipped on both series. ABC was down and out, falling to its worst spot ever in the rankings. New hits? Well, “NCIS” did okay for CBS and the summer showed a rebirth for “The Amazing Race.” But outside of that, it was definitely a lull in a growing trend, although “American Idol” did grow again and “Friends” went out with a huge bang.

2004/2005: ABC’s miracle & the rising tide

This season will always be remembered as the miracle season for ABC. New series “Desperate Housewives” and “Lost” both smashed the gate open and didn’t bother looking back. “Lost” was even more miraculous considering that it aired at 8pm on a Wednesday night and could have been a massive failure. But viewers responded to good television. “Extreme Makeover: Home Edition” also broke out for ABC, and “Boston Legal” did well too, replaced by the much better performing “Grey’s Anatomy” in the spring. Over on CBS, the third series in the “CSI” franchise instantly drew good ratings. “NCIS” grew even more. “Two & A Half Men” proved that it would become a suitable replacement for “Raymond.” Fox’s “American Idol” grew to new heights and “House” became an eventually smash hit. Overall, this was the best year for the broadcast networks since 1999/2000, but even those numbers were inflated by “Millionaire”s rise.

In the summer, another big hit emerged and yes, it was also on ABC. “Dancing With The Stars.”

2005/2006. So far, this season has seen “Lost” grow even more, but no super series emerged in the fall. But the second half of the season is so far offering a plethora of news stories. “Grey’s Anatomy” broke out to the tune of 38 million viewers post-Super Bowl. “House” used its “Idol” audience to ratchet up 22 million viewers. “American Idol” broke even more records for its season premiere. And “Dancing With The Stars” went into two tough timeslots- Thursdays & Fridays at 8pm and landed in the top 15. What will the rest of the season hold? It’s hard to tell because of the Olympics, but it seems exciting to say the least.

 
Lessons they learned & why they’re stronger because of it:

Overexposure: The fiasco of “Who Wants To Be A Millionaire?,” perhaps the biggest disaster in the history of network television, offered a huge lesson for the networks- don’t over-rely on any series and always be developing something new. ABC failed to do that and simply plugged “Millionaire” into every weak timeslot, and it worked for a bit, then failed miserably because ABC had nothing in the wings. Overexposing a series can kill the golden goose, as ABC discovered. Fox, thusly, has been smart with “Idol,” airing only one edition a season to keep interest running high, and the strategy’s paid for itself in spades. 

Reality is not a cure-all: After “Survivor” hit it huge, the nets threw everything they had into the ring. A few became one hit wonders like “Joe Millionaire.” Most were duds like “All American Girl.” A very select few, like “American Idol” and “Extreme Makeover: Home Edition” became smash hits. The right reality series, when scheduled properly, can cover a timeslot hole and help to create future hits.

When you’re down, take chances: The week before the launch of the 2004/2005 season, ABC was all but dead. But two new series, Desperate Housewives and Lost, turned their fortunes around instantly. They were a risk, especially Lost, which was very expensive to produce and full of dense methodology, but viewers responded by turning them into the two most talked about series since “Friends” and “ER” in 1994. Both continue to rack up impressive numbers. This is a lesson that NBC has obviously not learned and continues to suffer because of it. Over on Fox, moving “24” to Mondays last season could have been a disaster, but the network wanted to give “House” a shot at the post “Idol” audience. The outcome? “24” hit new series records on Monday nights and “House” became a monster hit.

When you’re up, play it cautiously: CBS has locked into the number one spot for several season now by playing what it does best: procedural crime dramas. This season, “Criminal Minds” became its newest hit, “Close To Home” became a Friday success and “NCIS” continued to increase its viewership. Currently, there are only a few weak spots in its entire line-up: Tuesday at 10pm, Wednesdays 8-9 and Sundays 9-11pm. But at the same time, late 1990’s NBC was in the same position and basically lead itself to the slaughter by not taking any chances outside of what played well. Will CBS suffer the same fate? Time will tell.

Use special timeslots wisely: Fox learned that viewers don’t necessarily want younger themed series airing after “American Idol.” “Bernie Mack,” “The OC” and “24” all basically wasted “Idol”s lead-out. But “House,” a more adult series that suffered when it first launched, is now drawing 20+ million viewers Tuesday at 9pm. Ditto for post-Super Bowl. This is the most coveted timeslot in all of television, so why waste it on a completely new series, a series that doesn’t really need the boost (“Survivor” in 2001, 2004), an older series that is already very well established (“The Simpsons” in 1999, 2005) or a middle aged struggling series that never caught on to begin with “Alias” in 2003). None of those series benefited from the extra exposure, and most, with the exception of “Survivor,” fumbled it badly. But ABC’s 2006 strategy of “Grey’s Anatomy”? Brillant. A very young series that has a big fanbase and is on the verge of completely breaking out. Airing it after the Super Bowl brought in 38 million viewers and will give ABC, quite possibly, its biggest hit on the air. It’ll also get moved to a new night in the fall, giving ABC solid numbers on at least 3 nights of the week.

 
Conclusion: Are the networks still dying? Technically, yes. Overall viewership numbers continue to decline. Giving up Saturdays for dead put a dent in the numbers, and so does NBC’s continual slide. In fact, take out NBC and the networks on the whole are up solidly from last season, and would have been up last season from 2003/2004 if NBC was taken out again. NBC is, in effect, dragging them down.

But if you look at the overall situation compared to 1999, it’s vastly different for the networks, at least for the big 4. At that time, they seemed unable to launch a big new hit. There were lots of mid-ranged ones, sure, but the big ones were elusive. And it’s those big hits that make or break a network. But the last three seasons have seen the launch of Desperate Housewives, Lost, Grey’s Anatomy, Extreme Makeover: Home Edition, House, CSI New York, NCIS, Dancing With The Stars & Two & A Half Men, all of which have drawn, or have come very close to drawing more than 20 million viewers. The age of the mega-hit is definitely back, as each and every one of these series proves. A network no longer has to be content with an “Ally McBeal” which draws 16 million viewers on a good week. It’s great to have a series like that, yes, but they now know that more is within reach. They’re relearned how to launch series, an art that seemed forgotten back in 1999.

So what’s to come? Well, the great thing about all of these mega hits today is that they’re still young. The average age of those 9 series listed above is just 2 years. So while ABC might not have had the best development season this year (or rather, not much stuck), it’s not in a panic to get new series on the air before its current hits are gone for good. There’s plenty of time.

As for the problem areas that need to be aggressively targeted:

The mini-nets: Fixed. The CW should see decent viewer numbers. Not big-4 sized, but certainly a hell of a lot better than what they’re getting now. 

NBC: NBC’s freefall is sad to say the least, but this will be mitigated in part by Sunday Night Football next season. It still has to get better series on the air, however. 

Sitcoms: This is the big sticking point. In particular, if ABC really wants to take a run for first in viewers, it has to develop a slate of good sitcoms. Its dramas are gangbusters. Its sitcoms are dead. Fox needs some too. And it certainly couldn’t hurt NBC to get a few more good ones. 

Saturday night: On a good week, the networks combine for a 30 share on the night. There’s still 70% of the audience out there, and they’re no longer actively going after them. If one particular network manages to come up with an aggressive slate for the night, there could be huge rewards. At the end of last season, they were giving up Fridays for dead too, but this season has seen a renaissance on the night. CBS found to new solid hits, ABC is drawing huge numbers with “Dancing” and the UPN wins the night in younger demos with wrestling. Now do that on Saturday.

The networks are not dead. They are now healthier than they have been in nearly two decades, despite lower total ratings. It’s time to call off the dogs and give them credit where credit is due.